Exoplanets with ELT-METIS

Direct imaging is a powerful exoplanet discovery technique that complementary to other techniques and offers great promise in the era of 30 meter class telescopes. Space-based transit surveys have revolutionized our understanding frequency planets at small orbital radii around Sun-like stars. The next generation extremely large ground-based telescopes will angular resolution sensitivity directly image with $R < 4R_\oplus$ very nearest Here, we predict yields from direct survey volume-limited sample stars Mid-Infrared ELT Imager Spectrograph (METIS) instrument, planned for 39 m European Southern Observatory (ESO) Extremely Large Telescope (ELT) expected be operational towards end decade. Using Kepler occurrence rates, spectral types A-K within 6.5 pc, simulated contrast curves based on an advanced model what achievable coronagraphic adaptive optics, estimated yield METIS using Monte Carlo simulations. We find N2 band (10.10 - 12.40 $\mu$m) 1.14 planets, which greater than comparable observations L (3.70 3.95 M (4.70 4.90 bands. also determined 24.6% chance detecting least one Jovian planet background limited regime assuming 1 hour integration. calculated per star estimate optimal observing revisit times increase yield. analyzed northern hemisphere version this found there are additional targets worth considering. In conclusion, present strategy aimed maximize possible telescope time, resulting 1.48 band.